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Jeff Hulett

Curator, The Curiosity Vine

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The Curiosity Vine is an idea incubator.

Our contributors have experience and interest in a variety of high-impact topics, such as science, technology, conservation, mathematics, data science, public policy, economics, and others. Our objective is to promote early-stage ideas, enable idea collaboration, and test idea purchase.

TCV platform is curated by Jeff Hulett.

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TCV's ideas are used to provide seminars, write books, build businesses, and especially to help people.

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Featured Posts

Birds, Frogs, and AI: Who Wins and Loses in the New Labor Economy?

In 2008, theoretical physicist Freeman Dyson delivered a famous lecture describing two types of thinkers driving scientific progress: Birds and Frogs. Birds fly high, surveying broad vistas, unifying disparate concepts, and proposing grand theoretical frameworks. Frogs live down in the mud, delighting in fine details, solving specific localized problems, and exploring concrete structures. Dyson insisted both remained essential; neither held superiority. A frog-like focus alig

Econ Connections

The Science of Changing Your Mind: An Intuition-First Guide to Bayesian Thinking

Decision-makers navigate uncertainty, seeking conviction in an unpredictable world. This article explores a practical, intuition-first application of Bayesian Inference. Readers learn how a straightforward mental model, supported by a clear framework and an interactive calculator, sharpens decision confidence. While the text examines core mathematical relationships, the mechanics remain in service of practical intuition, equipping individuals to evaluate new evidence and adju

Econ Connections

Beyond "Lesser-of-Two-Evils": A Guide to Voting Your Conscience

People like to imagine political campaigns as a pitch for a better future (a candidate standing on stage declaring, "Vote for me because here is what I will build, protect, and deliver"). Instead, voters face a relentless strategy built almost entirely on fear. Over the past fifty years, institutional reforms shifted power toward low-turnout primaries dominated by party activists and focused money. Consequently, positive visions quietly gave way to defensive positioning. Mode

Public Policy

An Investment in Emergence: 35 Years, Four Children, and the Generational Power of Everyday Faithfulness

Looking back on our journey together, my wife Patti and I feel such gratitude. We met over 40 years ago at the beginning of college and now approach our 35th wedding anniversary. Over those decades, four wonderful children (three sons and a daughter) blessed our lives, ranging from 31 down to our youngest, David, who is 25. Born roughly two years apart, watching them grow from energetic kids into healthy adults remains the great privilege of our lives. Recently, David got eng

Self Growth

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Mortgage Rates Update: October 16th, 2025

The week ending October 16th, 2025, saw a continued, though marginal, decline in 30-year fixed mortgage rates, offering a brief reprieve to borrowers. Crucially, the decoupling from Treasury movements observed last week has amplified, widening the spread between the 30-year mortgage and the 10-year T-Note. This indicates a persistent level of caution among mortgage-backed security investors For a $100,000 loan at 6.27%, the monthly payment decreased $2 to $617 Upcoming releas

Econ Connections

Jeff Hulett

Oct 18, 20251 min read

Statistics, Bias, and the Better Way to Learn: Moving Beyond the Streetlamp

The foundations of modern statistics—statistical moments, correlation, regression, the chi-squared test, and ANOVA—are indispensable tools powering every field from finance to pharmaceuticals. Yet, their origins are deeply unsettling. Francis Galton, Karl Pearson, and Ronald Fisher, the brilliant minds who established these methods, were devoted proponents of eugenics, a pseudoscientific movement aimed at selective breeding [Kevles, Daniel J. 1995]. Their principal motivation

Econ Connections

Jeff Hulett

Oct 12, 20258 min read

New Housing Update: End of August 2025

US New Home Market: Sales, Prices, Permits and Inventory as of September 30, 2025 As the Chief Economist of The Curiosity Vine, I've...

Econ Connections

Jeff Hulett

Oct 11, 20252 min read

Treasury Rates Update: October 9th, 2025

The recent movements in U.S. Treasury rates present a nuanced picture for investors, signaling continued market adjustments as we...

Econ Connections

Jeff Hulett

Oct 11, 20251 min read

Mortgage Rates Update: October 9th, 2025

For the week ending October 9th, 2025, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate experienced a marginal decrease, a modest respite for the housing...

Econ Connections

Jeff Hulett

Oct 11, 20251 min read

Data IS Biased: How AI Distorts Our Perceptions (and what you can do about it)

First off, you need to get over it. Please repeat after me: "Data is biased. Data is always biased." Don't you feel better now?! In our messy, real day-to-day lives, data suffers from the "4 Nevers" of the knowledge problem. Knowledge, and therefore data, is: Never Complete, Never Static, Never Centralized, and Never Invariant. (Click here to learn more about the 4 Nevers.) Now that you know this, it's time to discuss 1) how bias is presented in the GenAI world and 2) wh

Econ Connections

Jeff Hulett

Oct 10, 20255 min read

The Tyranny of the Average: Incentives, Interdependence, and the Failure of the Bell Curve

-- The "Normal" Fallacy: Why the Bell Curve is an Abnormal Distribution. The bell-shaped curve, or Normal distribution, is arguably the most recognizable image in statistics. Its mathematical ubiquity has led many to believe it is the default, or "normal," state of nature. However, when we apply this distribution to the complex, interdependent realm of human affairs—from wealth and social media engagement to market returns and social influence—the Normal distribution proves

Econ Connections

Jeff Hulett

Oct 9, 202510 min read

Designing Humanity: What the Eugenics Era Warns Us About Building the GenAI Future

The Peril of “Scientism” — When Science Pretends to Know What It Cannot Friedrich A. Hayek once warned us: “the curious task of economics...

Science

Jeff Hulett

Oct 7, 20255 min read

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