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Mortgage Rates Update: October 9th, 2025

For the week ending October 9th, 2025, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate experienced a marginal decrease, a modest respite for the housing market. Our analysis of the current rate environment and its relationship with the Treasury market offers key insights into the prevailing conditions.


For a $100,000 loan at 6.30%, the monthly payment decreased $3 to $619


Upcoming releases:

 

  • Next new jobs Oct 3   (Fed Govt shutdown, no data released)

  • Next CPI release is Oct 15   (CPI increased from 2.7% to 2.9%)

  • Next Fed meeting is Oct 29   (The Fed decreased rates 25bp on Sept 17)


Key Developments

The 30-year mortgage rate is now at 6.30% as of 10/9/2025, reflecting a 4 basis point (bp) decrease from the previous week. This downward movement in mortgage rates occurred despite the 10-Year Treasury rate increasing by 4bp.


Key figures for the week are as follows:

  • The 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate is 6.30%.


  • The 10-Year T-Note Rate stands at 4.14%.


  • The Spread between the 30-year mortgage rate and the 10-year T-Note is 216bp.


  • The Historical Spread is 168bp.


  • The current spread is 48bp above the historical average, indicating a safety cushion is built into the rate.


This week's movement saw the spread decrease by 8bp. For a $100,000 loan at the new 6.30% rate, the monthly payment decreased by $3 to $619. While the 48bp buffer above the historical spread suggests continued caution in the lending sector, the slight uncoupling from the 10-Year Treasury indicates that mortgage rates might be reacting to other specific market conditions. We will continue to monitor these metrics for further directional clarity.

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