The US Treasury market experienced a notable week, heavily influenced by the Federal Reserve's rate decrease of 25 basis points on December 10th. This action immediately triggered a clear pivot in the yield curve, with short-term rates declining while longer-term maturities moved higher, reflecting the market's expectation of short-term easing but potentially persistent inflation concerns further out. Upcoming Key Economic Data Release:   Next net new job release is Dec 16 for November (no...

For the week ending December 11, 2025, the fixed mortgage market experienced a parallel movement with Treasury yields, indicating a return to correlation. The 30-year fixed rate increased by 3 basis points (bp), settling at 6.22%. This upward shift mirrored the 10-Year T-Note rate, which also rose by 3bp to 4.14%. As an experienced economist, I find this concurrent movement significant. When both rates move in tandem, the spread between them remains stable, suggesting the market is not...

The U.S. Treasury market made a strong directional move this past week, signaling a distinct anticipation of future policy changes ahead of the December 10th Fed meeting. We saw a clear pivot in the yield curve toward a more positive, or steepening, position. This dramatic shift involved a significant drop in the shortest-term rates alongside a broad rise in longer maturities, painting a picture of expected short-term easing coupled with persistent long-term inflation or growth expectations....