In the wake of the March 18th Federal Reserve meeting, the Treasury market has entered a phase of distinct curve flattening. As an economist who has navigated numerous policy cycles, I find this week’s action particularly telling: while the Fed’s latest stance provided a reprieve for long-term yields, the "belly" and short end of the curve continue to adjust to persistent liquidity realities. Upcoming Key Economic Data Release:   Next net new job release is April 3   Next CPI release is April...

The mortgage market experienced a notable shift in the week ending March 19, 2026, as primary rates diverged significantly from secondary market yields. As an economist who prioritizes market efficiency, I find this week's data underscores a renewed caution among lenders. While the 10 Year Treasury rate actually declined by 2 basis points to 4.25 percent, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate climbed by 11 basis points to settle at 6.22 percent. This inverse movement caused the mortgage Treasury...

The mortgage market experienced upward pressure during the week ending March 12, 2026, as primary rates responded to a significant rise in benchmark yields. As an economist who monitors the delicate balance between government debt and consumer lending, I noted that the 10 Year Treasury rate climbed 14 basis points to reach 4.27 percent. In response, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate increased by 11 basis points to settle at 6.11 percent. Despite the increase in the headline mortgage rate, the...