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Stay Curious.
Make the most of your college experience.
Jeff Hulett
Curator, The Curiosity Vine
Stay Curious.
The Curiosity Vine is an idea incubator.
Our contributors have experience and interest in a variety of high-impact topics, such as science, technology, conservation, mathematics, data science, public policy, economics, and others. Our objective is to promote early-stage ideas, enable idea collaboration, and test idea purchase.
TCV platform is curated by Jeff Hulett.
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Learn about why you should join The Curiosity Vine.
TCV's ideas are used to provide seminars, write books, build businesses, and especially to help people.
So take a look around the site, feel free to ask or answer your own questions, and enjoy your own curiosity exploration!
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Featured Posts
The Science of Changing Your Mind: An Intuition-First Guide to Bayesian Thinking
Decision-makers navigate uncertainty, seeking conviction in an unpredictable world. This article explores a practical, intuition-first application of Bayesian Inference. Readers learn how a straightforward mental model, supported by a clear framework and an interactive calculator, sharpens decision confidence. While the text examines core mathematical relationships, the mechanics remain in service of practical intuition, equipping individuals to evaluate new evidence and adju
Beyond "Lesser-of-Two-Evils": A Guide to Voting Your Conscience
People like to imagine political campaigns as a pitch for a better future (a candidate standing on stage declaring, "Vote for me because here is what I will build, protect, and deliver"). Instead, voters face a relentless strategy built almost entirely on fear. Over the past fifty years, institutional reforms shifted power toward low-turnout primaries dominated by party activists and focused money. Consequently, positive visions quietly gave way to defensive positioning. Mode
An Investment in Emergence: 35 Years, Four Children, and the Generational Power of Everyday Faithfulness
Looking back on our journey together, my wife Patti and I feel such gratitude. We met over 40 years ago at the beginning of college and now approach our 35th wedding anniversary. Over those decades, four wonderful children (three sons and a daughter) blessed our lives, ranging from 31 down to our youngest, David, who is 25. Born roughly two years apart, watching them grow from energetic kids into healthy adults remains the great privilege of our lives. Recently, David got eng
The Boundaries of Power: What Economic History Teaches Us About the Proper Role of Government
Every generation faces a core question of political economy: What is the proper role of government? Historically, the debate waxes and wanes between expanded state intervention and restrained governance. Modern practice reveals a steady expansion of state power. Effective government does not represent a luxury; it represents a foundational necessity. As Adam Smith and classic commentators made clear, market societies require a government enforcing justice to function properly
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The Science of Changing Your Mind: An Intuition-First Guide to Bayesian Thinking
Decision-makers navigate uncertainty, seeking conviction in an unpredictable world. This article explores a practical, intuition-first application of Bayesian Inference. Readers learn how a straightforward mental model, supported by a clear framework and an interactive calculator, sharpens decision confidence. While the text examines core mathematical relationships, the mechanics remain in service of practical intuition, equipping individuals to evaluate new evidence and adju
Jeff Hulett
4 days ago7 min read
Treasury Rates Update: September 3rd, 2026
In my years analyzing fixed-income markets, aggressive upward repricing ahead of employment data usually signals a market steeling itself for macroeconomic surprises. The Treasury market spent this past week pushing yields higher across the entire curve, with the heaviest selling concentrated in intermediate maturities. Investors are actively adjusting positions as policy expectations harden ahead of crucial autumn updates. The benchmark 10-year Treasury rate jumped 10 basi
Bill Knudson
4 days ago1 min read
Mortgage Rates Update: September 3rd, 2026
The mortgage market for the week ending September 3, 2026, experienced standard margin absorption as primary borrowing rates rose at a slower pace than baseline Treasury yields. As an experienced economist tracking capital market dynamics, I observe that primary lenders absorbed a portion of the broader bond sell-off to keep consumer borrowing competitive. While the 10 Year Treasury Note rate surged 10 basis points to 4.77 percent, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose by a mo
Bill Knudson
4 days ago1 min read
Beyond "Lesser-of-Two-Evils": A Guide to Voting Your Conscience
People like to imagine political campaigns as a pitch for a better future (a candidate standing on stage declaring, "Vote for me because here is what I will build, protect, and deliver"). Instead, voters face a relentless strategy built almost entirely on fear. Over the past fifty years, institutional reforms shifted power toward low-turnout primaries dominated by party activists and focused money. Consequently, positive visions quietly gave way to defensive positioning. Mode
Jeff Hulett
7 days ago7 min read
Mortgage Rates Update: August 20th, 2026
The mortgage market for the week ending August 20, 2026, demonstrated notable margin compression as primary retail rates edged lower despite upward pressure on underlying benchmark yields. As an experienced economist tracking fixed income spreads, I find this week's movement reveals primary lenders absorbing higher capital costs to maintain competitive borrowing terms. While the 10 Year Treasury Note rate jumped by 6 basis points to 4.69 percent, the 30 year fixed mortgage ra
Bill Knudson
Aug 211 min read
Treasury Rates Update: August 20th, 2026
The fixed-income market is delivering a classic textbook lesson in yield curve dynamics following the latest inflation data. The August 12th CPI release confirmed that headline inflation has moderated to 3.5%, providing the bond market with much-needed breathing room ahead of the September 16th Federal Reserve meeting. Rather than sparking a broad rally, however, investors used the news to aggressively recalibrate short-to-intermediate maturities while long-term rates remaine
Bill Knudson
Aug 211 min read
The Boundaries of Power: What Economic History Teaches Us About the Proper Role of Government
Every generation faces a core question of political economy: What is the proper role of government? Historically, the debate waxes and wanes between expanded state intervention and restrained governance. Modern practice reveals a steady expansion of state power. Effective government does not represent a luxury; it represents a foundational necessity. As Adam Smith and classic commentators made clear, market societies require a government enforcing justice to function properly
Jeff Hulett
Aug 118 min read
The Classical Liberal’s Dilemma: Why Freedom Fails at the Ballot Box
When the Classical Liberal Revival Feels Real The impulse to dismantle the administrative state is a recurring rhythm in the history of governance, a perennial tension between the expanding reach of the bureaucracy and the enduring ideals of classical liberalism. While the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) stands as a recent historical attempt to prune the thicket of executive overreach, it follows a storied lineage of efforts to restore institutional accountability.
Jeff Hulett
Aug 98 min read
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