Treasury Rates Update: October 8th, 2026
In my decades monitoring fixed-income markets, a muted reaction to a sharply negative economic datapoint reveals a market that has already priced in considerable policy drag. Despite the October 2nd jobs report delivering a surprisingly low print of just 29,000 new positions, the Treasury curve held remarkably steady this past week. Rather than triggering a flight to quality, yields across most maturities experienced minimal movement as investors looked ahead to upcoming inflation data.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield slipped 2 basis points (bp) to 5.22%, leaving its cumulative 14-day change up by a modest 4bp.
Upcoming Key Economic Data Release:
Next jobs release is November 6
Next CPI release is October 14
The next Fed meeting is on October 28
Key Developments
Front-End Divergence: The 1-month rate surged 8bp to 4.14%, while the 1-year yield held completely flat at 4.44%.
Intermediate Softening: Yields on 2-year and 5-year Treasuries edged down by 3bp and 2bp, settling at 4.75% and 4.99%, respectively.
Yield Curve Steepening: Driven by 2-year rates falling slightly faster than 10-year rates, the 10-to-2-year spread expanded to 0.47% from 0.46% last week.
Long-End Stability: The 30-year yield dipped just 1bp to finish at 5.60%.
All focus now shifts to the October 14th CPI report for critical inflation signals ahead of the October 28th Federal Reserve meeting.
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