Treasury Rates Update: October 1st, 2026
In my decades monitoring fixed-income markets, extended multiday selling pressure usually reflects a fundamental recalibration of market expectations. Over the past two weeks, the Treasury market has experienced an intense, unrelenting surge in yields across nearly the entire term structure, with very few days offering any downward relief. Investors are aggressively pricing in persistent inflation risks and higher-for-longer policy rates.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury rate climbed another 6 basis points (bp) this week to reach 5.24%, compounding a massive 30bp increase over the past 14 days.
Upcoming Key Economic Data Release:
Next jobs release is October 2
Next CPI release is October 14
The next Fed meeting is on October 28
Key Developments
Long-End Breakout: Long-term maturities experienced the sharpest upward pressure, with the 30-year yield surging 14bp to 5.61%.
Intermediate Advance: Yields on 2-year and 5-year Treasuries rose by 7bp and 6bp, settling at 4.94% and 5.09%, respectively.
Yield Curve Steepening: Driven by 30-year and 10-year yields outpacing short-end gains, the 10-to-2 year spread expanded slightly to 0.30% from 0.31% last week.
Front-End Increases: The 1-year yield moved up 7bp to 4.58%, while the 1-month rate ticked up 2bp to 4.03%.
All eyes now turn to the October 2nd employment report and October 14th CPI release ahead of the October 28th Federal Reserve meeting.
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