Treasury Rates Update: September 24th, 2026
In my decades monitoring fixed-income markets, a decisive breach of psychological threshold levels often signals a fundamental shift in market sentiment. Following the prior week's flattening trend, the Treasury market experienced an aggressive bear steepening wave this past week, completely breaking through previous resistance levels. Yields surged across all maturities as selling pressure intensified across intermediate and long-term bonds.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury rate surged 24 basis points (bp) this week to close at 5.18%, bringing its 14-day cumulative rise to 23bp and decisively shattering the long-standing 5.0% ceiling.
Upcoming Key Economic Data Release:
Next jobs release is October 2
Next CPI release is October 14
The next Fed meeting is on October 28
Key Developments
Intermediate & Long-End Selloff: The 5-year yield jumped 25bp to 5.03%, while the 2-year and 30-year rates climbed 20bp to 4.87% and 18bp to 5.47%, respectively.
Yield Curve Steepening: Driven by 10-year yields outpacing 2-year gains, the 10-to-2-year spread widened to 0.31%, up from 0.27% last week.
Front-End Increases: The 1-year rate rose 11bp to 4.51%, while the 1-month rate ticked up 4bp to 4.01%, extending the 1-month to 1-year inversion to -0.50%.
All market eyes now focus on the October 2nd jobs report and October 14th CPI release ahead of the October 28th Federal Reserve meeting.
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