Treasury Rates Update: October 9th, 2025
- Bill Knudson
- 3 days ago
- 1 min read
The recent movements in U.S. Treasury rates present a nuanced picture for investors, signaling continued market adjustments as we approach key economic data releases and Federal Reserve meetings.
Upcoming Key Economic Data Release:
Next new job release is 10.3.25 (Government shut, no new data)
Next inflation release 10.15.25
Next Fed meeting is 10.29.25
Key Developments
Over the past week, the 10-Year Treasury rate has seen a net increase of 4 basis points (bp), though the net change over the full two-week period has been a decrease of 4bp. Daily fluctuations during this period were significant, including a 0.05bp rise on 10/6 and a 0.05bp drop on 9/29. A notable event in the period was the Federal Government shutdown around 10/3, which caused a lack of jobs data.
The yield curve as of 10/9/2025 (red line) compared to 10/2/2025 (green line) shows shorter-term rates rising and longer-term rates falling.
The 1-month rate decreased by 0.03% , while the 1-year and 2-year rates rose by 0.04% and 0.05%, respectively.
For longer terms, rates decreased, with the 2-year rate down 9bp and others down ∼8bp.
The 10-2 year spread is currently 0.54%, a decrease from last week's 0.55%.
Crucially, the yield curve for terms of two years and longer remains positive. Furthermore, the 1-month rate, at 4.20%, is 54bp above the 1-year rate of 3.66%. This suggests that even a substantial Federal Reserve rate cut would likely keep very short-term rates higher than longer-term rates, assuming no change in those longer-term rates. Upcoming events to monitor include the next CPI release on 10/15 and the Next Fed meeting on 10/29.
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