Daily changes in the US 10 Year Treasury rates are the blue bars while the red line is the 14-day cumulative change in rates: 35bp decrease. RATES ROCKET UP BUT FEATHER DOWN. For the blue bars, it is unusual to have changes of greater than 0.10 in a single day and 0.20 is VERY unusual.
After the Fed increased rates, by 75bp on June 15 rates DECREASED again this past week, particularly for 5 and 10-year terms (red line is current and green is last week). The spread of Mortgage Rates to the 10-Year is very high. With 10 years drifting down, mortgage rates may decline but those changes will be cautious.
The Yield Curve for short terms is VERY steep while the longer-term (5+) is slightly inverted.
Upcoming week: Monthly Net NEW JOBS and UNEMPLOYMENT RATE......Friday, July 8.
Net New Jobs last month 390,000. Prior to COVID, it was 180,000.
The current unemployment rate is 3.6%.
Weekly NEW Unemployment claims have been at record LOWS but have increased over the past few weeks.