Daily changes in the US 10 Year Treasury rates are the blue bars while the red line is the 14-day cumulative change in rates: 15bp decrease. RATES ROCKET UP BUT FEATHER DOWN. For the blue bars, it is unusual to have changes of greater than 0.10 in a single day and 0.20 is VERY unusual.
Except for 1-month rates, changes in the Treasury yield curve for the week were relatively mild in light of the substantial decline in mortgage rates.
The Yield Curve for short terms is VERY steep while the longer term (5+ years) is slightly inverted.
Upcoming Data that May Impact Treasury and Mortgage rates: Monthly Net NEW JOBS and UNEMPLOYMENT RATE……Friday, July 8. Below 300k will be good for the bond market. CPI inflation is released on July 13. Gas prices for June will be UP while the core should be down due to the June 2021 used car price spike of 10.5% will drop off with June 2022 data.
Net New Jobs last month 390,000. Prior to COVID, it was 180,000. Current unemployment rate is 3.6%.
Weekly NEW Unemployment claims have been at record LOWS but have increased over the past few weeks.
Core inflation components. Red is June 2021 data that will drop off. Green is 2022 average of 6 preceding months of Dec – May 2022. When red is larger than green, that will be an improvement in core inflation.