Commentary:
As mentioned last week...With Treasuries up 8bp this week, Mortgages will likely increase to ~7.10%. Mortgage rates came in at 6.99%
With Treasuries DOWN 27bp this week, Mortgages will likely decrease however the new jobs numbers came in at a very robust 272,000. I suspect this will have an upward pressure on rates. Get ready for some volatility in both the bond and mortgage markets.
The next jobs release June 7 Came in at 272,000 and the unemployment rate rose to 4.00%. The prior month was 175,000 and 3.9%
The next CPI release is June 12
The next Fed meeting is June 12
Rates tend to drift upwards prior to Fed meetings, especially before jobs and inflation announcements.
For the week ending 6.6.24 Mortgage rates DECREASED 4bp to 6.99%.
For a $100,000 loan the monthly payment DECREASED $3.00 and to $665/mo or $0.09/day
Mortgage rates DECREASED 4bp while the 10-year Treasury rates DECREASED 27bp for the week ended 6/6/24. The net difference resulted in a 23bp increase in the spread to 271bp. With the historical spread being 168 there now exists a “safety cushion” of 103bp above the historical spread.
The historic spread between the 10-year Treasury and mortgage rates is 168pb (see green line, right axis) and currently is 103bp above the historical norm.
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