Headline: For the week ending 7.13.23 mortgage rates increased by 15bp to 7.19%. The 7.12.23 CPI decline of 100bp to 3.00% has not flowed thru yet to mortgage rates.
A historical reminder====> On 11.10.22 mortgage rates reached 7.31% and the spread to 10-Year Treasury hit a record high of 349bp which is 181bp above the historical average spread of 168bp. To get back to the historical average either mortgage rates will decrease or Treasury rates will increase. On the following week ending 11/17/22 mortgage rates plummeted ~50bp.
With CPI down 100bp to 3.00% on 7.12.23 it is more likely that mortgages will decrease to get the spreads back closer to the historical average.
For the week ending 7.13.23 Mortgage rates INCREASED 15bp to 7.19%.
For a $100,000 loan the monthly payment INCREASED $10 to $ 678 /mo or 0.34/ day.
Mortgage rates INCREASED 15bp while the 10 Year Treasury rates DECREASED 29bp for the week ended 7/13/23. The net difference resulted in a 44bp increase in the spread to 343bp. With the historical spread being 168 there now exists a “safety cushion” of 175bp above the historical spread.
The historic spread between the 10 Year Treasury and mortgage rates is 168pb (see green line, right axis) and currently is 175bp above the historical norm. The last time the excess spread was this large was on 11/10/22 and mortgage rates dropped ~50bp the following week.
