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Inflation PROJECTION: from December 2022 data

INFLATION Forecast: The annual CPI total reported each month is a combined string of 12 months of data, think of it as being 12 dominoes, a new one comes on, and the oldest one drops off. THESE are the 2 dominoes to look at to see if things got better or worse. If Dec ‘22 monthly rate is 0.3% it will replace the Dec ‘21 data point of 0.5% on 1.12.23 and the annual CPI will decrease from 7.1% to 6.8%

 

It is a guesstimate that December’s monthly rate will be 0.3% when the actual is announced on 1.12.23. It could be higher or lower. As such the annual CPI for December will change accordingly. Below is a range of December monthly from 0.0% to 0.9%. The resulting annual CPI will range from 6.5% to 7.5%.

 

ENERGY INFLATION Forecast: Will the Dec ‘22 total monthly CPI come in at 0.3%? In the recent past, a major contributor to the improved annual CPI has been decreasing in Energy Costs. For Nov ‘22 data reported on 12.13.22 the Nov ‘21 total monthly total of 3.5% was replaced by <1.6%> 1.6%>. For Dec ’22 data, the Dec ’21 data point of <0.4%> will drop off. The Dec ‘22 month energy number will need to be extremely low to contribute to an overall reduction in the annual CPI for Dec ’22.

 

Where is the CPI headed? If the monthly CPI comes at 0.3% between Dec ‘22 and June ‘23, it is possible we could have an annual CPI of 3.6% by 7.12.23 when the June ‘23 CPI data is reported. How would this occur? The large monthly rates in March, May, and June of 2022 will roll off as new monthly 2023 data for these months would replace them assuming the replacement monthly is 0.3%.

 

Will CPI improvement cause 10 Year US Treasury rates to decline? The answer is sometimes.


Yes, last November - On 11.10.22 the Oct ‘22 annual CPI declined from 8.2% to 7.7%. The cumulative decrease in the 10-year treasury almost reached 50bp 3 days thereafter. (see green line) Note the 30bp drop from the day BEFORE 0


No, last December - On 12.13.22 the Nov ‘22 annual CPI declined by a larger amount from 7.7% to 7.1% but after 5 days the 10 Nov ‘22 annual CPI declined by a larger amount from 7.7% to 7.1% but after 5 days the 10-year rates were 10bp HIGHER and continued to go higher thereafter. (see red line)

However, observation tells us that long-term decreases in inflation generally occur in advance of decreases in the 10-year treasury. If inflation is persistently low, we can expect a drop in the 10-year treasury.

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