Treasury Rates Update: November 5th, 2026
In my decades tracking fixed-income markets, sustained multi-day rallies across the yield curve usually signal a market pricing in broader economic headwinds or systemic repositioning. Extending the downward momentum seen late last month, the Treasury market experienced another sharp, across-the-board decline in yields this past week. Investors appear to be seeking safety amid growing concerns over tech-sector AI slowdowns and shifting economic momentum following the presidential election.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury rate dropped 14 basis points (bp) this week to settle at 4.84%, deepening its cumulative 14-day decline to 12bp.
Upcoming Key Economic Data Release:
Next jobs release is November 6
Next CPI release is November 10
The next Fed meeting is on December 9
Key Developments
Intermediate Yield Rally: The 5-year yield fell by a substantial 19bp to 4.59%, while 2-year and 1-year rates dropped 15bp and 14bp to 4.46% and 4.28%, respectively.
Yield Curve Steepening: As intermediate rates fell slightly faster than 10-year yields, the 10-to-2-year spread widened marginally to 0.38%, up from 0.37% last week.
Long-End and Short-End Softening: The 30-year yield fell 7bp to 5.25%, while the 1-month rate dipped 3bp to 4.03%.
Markets now look ahead to the November 6th jobs report and November 10th CPI release as key inputs before the December 9th Federal Reserve meeting.
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