Treasury Rates Update: February 26th, 2026
- Bill Knudson
- Mar 27
- 1 min read
As we move further into the wake of the March Federal Reserve meeting, the Treasury market has delivered a striking, broad-based surge in yields. From my perspective, this aggressive upward move across the entire term structure indicates that the market is repricing for sustained inflationary pressures and a potentially more restrictive policy path.
The 10-year Treasury rate jumped 17 basis points (bp) this week, bringing the cumulative two-week increase to 15bp. This shift was not isolated to the benchmark, as intermediate maturities faced even steeper sell-offs.
Upcoming Key Economic Data Release:
Next net new job release is April 3
Next CPI release is April 10
The next Fed meeting is on April 29
Key Developments
Key developments in the yield curve include:
Broad Yield Surge: The 5-year rate led the market with a 20bp increase, followed by the 2-year and 10-year rates, which both rose by 17bp.
Long-End Pressure: The 30-year rate climbed 10bp, reaching 4.93%, compared to 4.83% just one week ago.
Short-Term Normalization: The 1-year rate surged by 10bp, now sitting at 3.83%, which is 9bp higher than the 1-month rate.
Yield Curve Stability: Despite the massive shift in rates, the 10-to-2-year spread remained unchanged at 0.46%.
All eyes now turn to the April 3rd Jobs report and the April 10th CPI release, which will be the final major data points before the April 29th Fed meeting.
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