Treasury Rates Update: June 4th, 2026
- Bill Knudson
- Jun 5
- 1 min read
As we position ourselves ahead of a crucial stretch of macroeconomic data, the fixed-income market is exhibiting a classic consolidation pattern. Drawing from my years of experience analyzing curve dynamics, this week’s subtle flattening indicates a market that is fine-tuning its expectations, seeking a delicate equilibrium between growth resilience and persistent policy caution.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury rate ticked up a modest 2 basis points (bp) this week to finish at 4.47%. This small weekly bounce acts as a minor counterweight to the broader narrative, leaving the cumulative two-week trend down by 10bp.
Upcoming Key Economic Data Release:
Next jobs release is June 5
Next CPI release is June 10
The next Fed meeting is on June 17
Key Developments
Intermediate Velocity: The 2-year rate led the market's upward bias by climbing 6bp to 4.05%, while the 5-year rate increased by 3bp.
Long-End Stability: The 10-year rate rose 2bp, while the ultra-long 30-year rate bucked the trend, dropping a marginal 1bp to 4.97%.
Curve Compression: Because shorter-dated yields outpaced the long end, the 10-to-2 year spread decreased to 0.42% from 0.46% last week.
Front-End Divergence: The 1-year rate rose 2bp to 3.82%, while the 1-month rate edged down 1bp to 3.71%, widening the negative spread between them to -0.11%.
With tomorrow's June 5th Jobs report and next week's June 10th CPI release on deck, the market is collecting its final clues before the Federal Reserve takes the stage on June 17th.
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