Treasury Rates Update: September 10th, 2026
In my decades monitoring fixed-income markets, aggressive, broad-based selloffs right before crucial monetary policy meetings underscore a market bracing for structural hawkishness. The Treasury market saw yields surge significantly across the entire term structure this past week, driven by heavy selling concentrated in intermediate maturities as investors recalibrate ahead of upcoming macro catalysts.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury rate jumped 18 basis points (bp) this week to reach 4.95%, accelerating its cumulative 14-day increase to a significant 29bp.
Upcoming Key Economic Data Release:
Next jobs release is October 2
Next CPI release is September 11
The next Fed meeting is on September 16
Key Developments
Intermediate Spike: The 2-year and 5-year yields led the upward surge, leaping 22bp to 4.56% and 23bp to 4.75%, respectively.
Yield Curve Flattening: Because intermediate yields outpaced gains on long-term bonds, the 10-to-2 year spread compressed to 0.39%, down from 0.43% last week.
Widespread Selling: Short and ultra-long rates also advanced, with the 1-year rate climbing 17bp to 4.28% and the 30-year yield rising 12bp to 5.37%.
Front-End Inversion: The 1-month rate rose 8bp to 3.91%, widening its inverted spread against the 1-year rate to -0.37%.
All eyes now turn to the September 11th CPI release for final inflation cues before the Federal Reserve convenes on September 16th.
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