Treasury Rates Update: June 18th, 2026
- Bill Knudson
- 2 hours ago
- 1 min read
In my years analyzing fixed-income markets, few dynamics are as compelling as a classic "bear flattener" driven by sudden structural shifts in economic data. Following a cluster of high-impact reports, the Treasury market spent this past week aggressively repricing the front end of the curve. The June 5th jobs data revealed a moderate expansion of 172,000 positions, but it was the June 10th CPI report—showing an acceleration in inflation from 3.8% to 4.2%—that sent shockwaves through shorter maturities.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury rate finished the week practically unchanged, up a marginal 1 basis point (bp) to 4.46%, while its cumulative 14-day change stood flat at a 1bp decrease. Beneath this calm exterior on the long end, short-term yields surged.
Upcoming Key Economic Data Release:
Next jobs release is July 2
Next CPI release is July 14
The next Fed meeting is on July 29
Key Developments
Short-End Surge: Shorter-term maturities rose by 15bp, with both the 1-year and 2-year rates jumping to 4.00% and 4.19%, respectively.
Yield Curve Flattening: Because short-term rates outpaced long-term yields, the 10-to-2 year spread decreased to 0.27% from 0.40% last week.
Front-End Inversion Deepens: The 1-month rate held flat at 3.69%, widening its negative spread against the surging 1-year rate to -0.31%.
Long-End Softening: The 30-year rate bucked the broader trend, dropping 5bp to finish at 4.90%.
With the market continuing to digest this hot inflation print, expectations are hardening ahead of the July 29th Federal Reserve meeting. Ahead of that, the July 2nd Jobs report and July 14th CPI release will provide the next crucial guideposts.
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