The Desert and the Buffet: Why We Need the Kinison Fix for Trade

Years ago, comedian Sam Kinison famously shouted at a documentary crew filming a segment on famine: "You live in a desert! Nothing grows here! Nothing is ever going to grow here! You see this? This is sand! Know what it’s gonna be in a hundred years? It’s gonna be sand! MOVE TO WHERE THE FOOD IS!"

His advice, delivered with signature intensity, captured a fundamental economic truth. We see this play out in the mid-2020s as the nation navigates the consequences of the "Trump Slump," a period of economic stagnation driven by aggressive trade barriers. History shows tariffs act like a fly to a light for politicians looking for a quick splash. They offer a visible, immediate victory for a specific group, but they inevitably lead to a net negative for society. This brand of protectionism subsidizes the "economic desert" by shielding inefficiency. We must instead facilitate the journey to the "food."

The Sam Kinison Solution embraces what economist Deirdre McCloskey calls "Trade-Tested Betterment." Society grows when we stop protecting the inefficient and start empowering the mobile. We must trade the stagnation of a protected "home industry" for the dynamism of new, global opportunity.

About the author:  Jeff Hulett leads Personal Finance Reimagined, a decision-making and financial education organization. He teaches personal finance at James Madison University and provides entrepreneurial services. Check out his book -- Making Choices, Making Money: Your Guide to Making Confident Financial Decisions.

Jeff is a career banker, data scientist, behavioral economist, and choice architect. Jeff has held banking and consulting leadership roles at Wells Fargo, Citibank, KPMG, and IBM.

The Psychology of the Desert

Humans naturally avoid risk. This "status quo bias" is a survival mechanism turned economic trap. When an industry becomes obsolete due to global innovation, politicians offer a tariff. They build a "wall" to protect the desert.

A tariff is a tax on the rest of the country to maintain a ghost of the past. It prevents Creative Destruction, the engine creating the products and services our children will rely on. However, implementing the Kinison Fix requires an assessment of the desert itself. We must distinguish between temporary cyclical downturns and permanent structural shifts.

Psychologically, we want to believe the "revitalization is right around the corner" narrative. This hope often functions as a myth. To avoid wasting capital and Human Resources, we must assess whether a region has a path to growth or if it is simply sand.

Time is a critical component. People need jobs and momentum in the short term. For a "stay and fight" strategy to work, the path to revitalization must be imminent. If the turnaround is a decade away, it is not a plan; it is a sentence. We must be honest: is this a fertile field waiting for rain, or is the soil dead? If the data shows no water is coming, continuing the subsidy is a lie.

The Fear of Abandonment

Beyond economics, people face a deep emotional barrier. Adam Smith wisely observed, "Man naturally desires, not only to be loved, but to be lovely." Leaving for a better opportunity often feels like the opposite of lovely. It feels like turning your back on the people who raised you.

As a counterpoint, Marianne Williamson famously wrote:

"Your playing small does not serve the world. There is nothing enlightened about shrinking so that other people won't feel insecure around you."

Leaving a "desert" for a "buffet" is not an act of desertion; it is an act of honoring your community. Staying in an uncompetitive industry out of guilt only ensures the entire community shrinks together. When individuals move toward opportunity, they grow stronger. They gain the resources, skills, and perspective to help their original community eventually find its own new path. As Williamson noted, when we are liberated from our own fear, our presence automatically liberates others.

Instead of Tariffs, there are other government programs to encourage and cajole residents to find greater opportunities. We must apply a system of Sticks and Sweets to make the cost of staying in a true "desert" visible and the path to the "food" irresistible.

The Sweets: Lowering the Barrier to Entry

"Sweets" reduce the friction of transition. Government policy should lubricate this gear rather than jamming it. Crucially, "moving" in the modern world does not always require a change of address. Digital mobility allows workers to stay in their physical community while moving their labor to the global buffet.

• Mobility and Remote Work Grants: The government should offer direct "Opportunity Grants" to residents in "job deserts." These funds cover moving expenses or the high-speed infrastructure and retraining necessary for remote work. If you move from a stagnant local industry to a high-growth global role, the government should fuel the truck—or the fiber optic line.

• Destination Community Tax Credits: We must incentivize "Food Hubs" to welcome newcomers. Federal tax credits should go to businesses in destination communities hiring workers from economic deserts. This aligns the interests of the growing firm with those of the displaced worker.

• Portable Benefits: Fear of losing the safety net tied to a specific local employer anchors people in the "desert." Ensuring health and retirement benefits are fully portable across state lines and industries gives people permission to move without fear of collapse.

• Licensing Reform: Eliminate unnecessary state "permission slips." Mandatory licenses often protect incumbents rather than the public. Removing these barriers lets workers enter new fields quickly. Replace mandatory requirements with voluntary certifications. This allows workers to signal value without the government blocking the path to a new career.

We must be honest about the "Digital Buffet." Adam Smith's principle remains true: the division of labor is limited by the 'extent of the market.'  While Smith looked to the seacoasts to expand trade, our modern market is digital and global. This expansion brings global competition. For an American in a high-cost area, "moving" digitally only works by shifting into high-context or high-touch roles. Selling a commodity skill easily found elsewhere for $5 an hour is simply staying in a digital desert. The "Sweets" must therefore focus on the upskilling required to justify a high-cost-of-living salary.

The Sticks: Ending the Subsidy of Stagnation

"Sticks" remove the artificial life support, keeping people trapped in dying industries.

• Sunsetting Tariffs: Any industry seeking protectionist tariffs must follow a strict "Sunset Schedule." A 10% tariff this year becomes 8% next year, 5% the following, and zero within five years. This sends a clear signal to capital and labor: "The desert is drying up. You have five years to find a new well."

• Eliminating Geographic Subsidies: We must stop hidden transfers of wealth subsidizing businesses for existing in low-utility zones. Providing perpetual tax breaks or grants to keep an obsolete industry in a specific zip code lies to workers about their long-term prospects. When the subsidy vanishes, the true market signal reappears.

Deirdre McCloskey rightly points out that "equal opportunity" is a myth; our unique upbringings and genetic makeup ensure we never truly start from the same line. However, she champions the "freedom to move" as the essential ingredient for human flourishing. These Sticks and Sweets do not promise a perfectly level playing field, but they do provide people the permission to find the best path for their specific situation.

The Result: A Healthier Economic Ecosystem

The Kinison Solution recognizes the "Home Industry" is not a building or a brand. It is the people. If we protect the industry via tariffs, we stifle the people. If we empower the people to move—physically or digitally—the uncompetitive industry may die, but the workers thrive in new roles adding value to the modern economy.

Implementing these sticks and sweets stops the stagnation of the present and restarts the engine of growth. We must stop asking our children to pay a "Tariff Tax" to maintain the status quo. We must give them a country where labor flows to where it is most valued.

Stop sending food to the desert. Move to where the food is.

Resources for the Curious

Kinison, Sam. Breaking the Rules. Directed by Walter C. Miller. New York, NY: HBO, 1987.

This performance provides the foundational "desert" metaphor used to illustrate the futility of subsidizing stagnant economic zones.

McCloskey, Deirdre N. Bourgeois Equality: How Ideas, Not Capital or Institutions, Enriched the World. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2016.

McCloskey’s work establishes the concept of "trade-tested betterment" and emphasizes the ethical importance of the freedom to move.

Ricardo, David. On the Principles of Political Economy and Taxation. London: John Murray, 1817.

Ricardo introduces the law of comparative advantage, proving that mutual gains from trade exist even when one party has an absolute advantage in all areas.

Roberts, Russ. The Choice: A Fable of Free Trade and Protectionism. 3rd ed. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall, 2006.

Roberts uses a narrative framework to expose the "unseen" costs of tariffs and argues for the long-term benefits of specialization.

Schumpeter, Joseph A. Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy. New York: Harper & Brothers, 1942.

This seminal text introduces "creative destruction" as the essential process that allows an economy to evolve by replacing obsolete industries.

Smith, Adam. An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations. London: Strahan and Cadell, 1776.

Smith provides the classic economic principle that the division of labor is limited by the "extent of the market."

Williamson, Marianne. A Return to Love: Reflections on the Principles of A Course in Miracles. New York: HarperCollins, 1992.

The "deepest fear" passage in this book offers the psychological framework to view personal growth and mobility as a service to one's community.