Treasury Rates Update: April 2nd, 2026
- Bill Knudson
- Apr 4
- 1 min read
As we cross into the second quarter of 2026, the Treasury market has staged a significant retreat from the yield peaks observed in late March. Drawing on my experience, this week’s broad-based decline across the term structure suggests a market recalibrating its outlook as it prepares for a barrage of top-tier economic data.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury rate dropped 11 basis points (bp) this week, paring much of its recent climb and leaving the rate up only 6bp on a cumulative 14-day basis. This softening was not merely a long-end phenomenon; rather, it was driven by a substantial sell-off in short and intermediate durations.
Upcoming Key Economic Data Release:
Next net new job release is April 3
Next CPI release is April 10
The next Fed meeting is on April 29
Key Developments
Key shifts in the Treasury landscape include:
Yield Curve Steepening: The spread between the 10-year and 2-year rates widened to 0.52%, up from 0.46% last week, signaling a continued move toward a more traditional curve slope.
Intermediate Relief: The 2-year and 5-year rates saw the sharpest declines, falling 17bp and 14bp, respectively.
Short-End Realignment: The 1-year rate plummeted 15bp to 3.68%, which effectively re-established a front-end inversion as the 1-month rate now sits 4bp higher.
Long-End Stability: The 30-year rate proved the most resilient, edging down just 5bp to finish at 4.88%.
With the April 3rd Jobs report arriving tomorrow and CPI data scheduled for April 10th, the market remains on high alert ahead of the April 29th Federal Reserve meeting.
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