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New Jobs and Unemployment: July 2024

Observations:


The new jobs for June 2024 came in at 206,000----a moderate total and was somewhat higher than the 1977-2016 average.


Compared to 1977-2020 June's 206,000 was in the second highest quartile.


There are 11 job sectors used by the Dept of Labor, they are listed below as columns and are arranged in order of the largest percent of total jobs in the economy---see green bars.  The first 4 sectors account for nearly 67% of ALL JOBS.   

 

New jobs in June are the percent in the red bars.  If the green and red bars are about equal, that means that the sector produced new jobs in proportion to that sector's overall employment.

 

The red bars exceed the green bars for Private Ed & Health representing 15% of all jobs but yet accounted for 40% of the new jobs. 

 

Red bars that are much lower than the green bars include: Trade and Manufacturing. Note manufacturing has been underperforming relative to its size in the economy for months now.


Although the new jobs of 206,000 for June was moderate, the downward revisions for April and May data as well as the huge drop in Contract job casts a shadow on the robustness of the monthly net new jobs for June.

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  1. Introduction and observations

  2. Net New Jobs Created - recent history

  3. Job growth

  4. New Job Total Historical Comparison Using Quartiles

  5. Proportion of New Jobs: Totals

  6. Number of New Jobs: By category

  7. Growth rate by major category

  8. Number of New Jobs: by Sub-Categories

  9. Growth rate: by Sub-Categories

  10. Employment revision

  11. Weekly unemployment claims since 2017

  12. Weekly unemployment claims since 1977

  13. Unemployment Rate


 

2. New job growth for June 2024 came it at 206,000 compared to the prior month’s robust 272,000. June’s moderate total may impact the Federal Reserve as it continues it fight against inflation. The next Fed meeting is July 31.



 

3. June 2024 new job growth of 206,000 is above the average monthly rate that has occurred since 1977, that being ~175,000. It should be noted there is volatility in the monthly data and as such, when using this data, it is best to use a rolling average for trend analysis.



 

4. Taking the monthly new jobs from January 1997-March 2017 and ranking them into 4 quartiles, the June 2024 total 206,000 is in the second quartile.



 

5. Private Education & Health account for 15% of all jobs in the US and in April it accounted for 40% of all new jobs. When the red bar is ABOVE the green bar, that means that the category is outperforming its relative size. Oversized performance is likely NOT sustainable.


 

6. There are 11 categories of employment. The top 4 categories account for 64% of the total. The categories are ranked in descending order. The largest bars should be on the left.


Private Education and Health Services had the largest number of new jobs with 82,000. Government jobs came in with 70,000. Construction had 27,000 new jobs.



 

7. During a typical year, annualized job growth rates of 2% to 3% are normal. Rates above 4% are seldom sustainable.


Sectors that are NOT growing are jobs in Manufacturing and Finance.


 

8. Below are the more detailed listings of the top 4 categories. Health Care continues to have the largest number of new jobs in February - June. Separately, according the Consumer Price Index, health care is experiencing the fastest inflationary rate of growth in recent months.


 

9. Health care and Day Care employment continues to run above sustainable growth levels. Contract employment was off AGAIN this month. Contract employment is usually the leading edge of future job growth.


It is not known if contract employees were converted to full-time employees or not.



 

10. PRIOR PERIOD REVISION: The Bureau of Labor routinely revises prior period data as additional information becomes available over a 2 month period.


April was initially estimated at 175,000 and was revised downward by 10,000 in May. April’s final revision was a SUBSTANTIAL decrease of 57,000 on July 5.


May’s was initially estimated at a very large 272,000 which was downwardly revised by 54,000 on July 5 and will be finalized on August 2.


 

11. Weekly new Unemployment filings have settled in a range that is similar to levels that prevailed prior to COVID.


 

12. Weekly new Unemployment filings since 1977 continue to be in the low 200,000 range which is a near record lows.


 

13. The unemployment rate increased from 4.0% to 4.1% in June 2024 and continues to be slightly above the all time low unemployment rate attained in earlier 2023.


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