Upcoming economic releases and implications
• New Housing Starts
• Existing Home Sales, Prices, and Months of Inventory
• Leading Indicators
New home starts have leveled off and turned down with the 30-year mortgage rate run-up that occurred starting in March 2022. Note Months of Inventory are high. Millennials have pulled back on NEW home purchases when mortgage rates exceed the key price point level of 5.00%.
Existing home sales are in a downward trend that is caused by both rising mortgage rates, higher prices, and a lack of homes for sale.
Existing home months of inventory are rising but remain at a historically low level. The fact it is increasing at this time of year is a concern. Pending sales have been in a free fall—can’t sell homes when few homes are for sale.
Business Leading Indicators (red bars) are negative as the Fed has increased interest rates to fight inflation.
Consumer Confidence is not due out till July 26 but notes its drop-off. THIS is the KEY metric to watch.