Treasury Rates Update: September 4th, 2025
- Bill Knudson
- Sep 6
- 1 min read
This week’s Treasury market report reflects a modest downward drift in yields across most maturities. Economist Bill Knudson highlights how investors are positioning ahead of critical September data releases and the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting.
Upcoming Key Economic Data Release:
Next new job release is 9.5.25
Next inflation release 9.11.25
Next Fed meeting is 9.17.25
Key Developments
10-Year Treasury Yield: Fell 5 basis points (bp) to 4.17%, with a net two-week decline of 12bp.
Broad Market Movements:
2-Year yield decreased 9bp.
5-Year and 7-Year notes slipped 4bp each.
30-Year yield eased just 2bp.
Yield Curve:
The curve remains positively sloped beyond 2 years, but the medium-term slope is flattening, reflecting uncertainty in growth expectations.
The 10–2 year spread narrowed slightly to 0.58% from 0.60% last week.
Macro Context:
CPI remains steady at 2.7%.
Jobs report due September 5 and CPI release on September 11 are expected to shape investor sentiment ahead of the Fed meeting on September 17.
Knudson’s Perspective
Knudson interprets the week’s easing in yields as investors “waiting for direction.” The flattening mid-curve is an early caution signal, while the slight steepness in the 10–2 spread suggests that long-term optimism hasn’t eroded completely. His advice: decision-makers should stay vigilant, as September’s data could reset expectations for both growth and inflation.
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