Treasury Rates Update: September 11th, 2025
- Bill Knudson
- Sep 13
- 1 min read
This week’s Treasury market report reflects a notable decline in yields, underscoring investor caution as inflation edges higher and job growth slows. Economist Bill Knudson interprets the moves as early signals of shifting sentiment ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting.
Upcoming Key Economic Data Release:
Next new job release is 10.3.25
Next inflation release 10.15.25
Next Fed meeting is 9.17.25
Key Developments
10-Year Treasury Yield: Dropped 16 basis points (bp) to 4.01%, with a two-week net decline of 23bp.
Broad Yield Movements:
30-Year yield fell 21bp to 4.65%.
5-Year note slipped 6bp; 7-Year down 11bp.
2-Year yield declined 7bp to 3.76%.
Yield Curve:
The curve remains positively sloped beyond 2 years.
The 10–2 year spread narrowed to 0.49%, down from 0.58% last week, signaling flattening in the medium term.
Macro Context:
CPI rose slightly from 2.7% to 2.9%, reflecting sticky inflation.
Job creation slowed sharply, with only 22,000 new positions reported.
Knudson’s Perspective
Knudson notes that falling yields, combined with a flatter curve, suggest investors are bracing for weaker growth even as inflation remains above the Fed’s target. With the September 17 Fed meeting approaching, he emphasizes that the balance between growth risks and inflation persistence will define rate policy. Decision-makers should prepare for continued volatility in the medium-term maturities, where the most telling signals now reside.
Comments