Treasury Rates Update: November 13th, 2025
- Bill Knudson
- Nov 14
- 1 min read
This past week in the U.S. Treasury market was characterized by a distinct lack of movement, indicating the market is taking a pause after the significant volatility spurred by the late October Fed rate decrease and the recent jobs data.
Upcoming Key Economic Data Release:
Next net new job release is 11.7.25 (10.3.25 Fed Govt shutdown, no data)
Next inflation release 11.13.25 (10.15.25 Fed Govt shutdown, data delayed to 10.24.25. no release 11.13.25)
Next Fed meeting is 12.10.25 (Fed reduced rates 25bp on 10.29.25)
Key Developments
The 10 Year Treasury rate was essentially unchanged for the week. Daily changes were minimal, with the cumulative change over the past two weeks being 0.03, though holiday impacts affected the 14-day measurement period. Notable daily movements included a rise of 0.07 on November 5th, followed by a decline of 0.06 on November 6th.
The yield curve, comparing November 13th to November 6th, shows minimal change across all maturities.
The 1-year rate and 1-month rate both rose by 0.03%. The 2-year and shorter terms, as well as the longer terms, saw virtually no changes.
As a result of these slight adjustments, the 10 to 2-year spread narrowed fractionally to 0.53%, down from 0.54% last week. The curve for terms of two years and longer remains positive. The 1-month rate continues to sit above the 1-year rate by 37bp. This means that even with another 25bp Fed funds rate decrease, the very short-term rates would still exceed longer-term rates, assuming no change in the longer-term rates. The market is now looking ahead to the Next Fed meeting on December 10th.
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