Treasury Rates Update: May 22nd, 2025
- Bill Knudson
- May 23
- 1 min read
Upcoming Key Economic Data Release:
The next new jobs report is June 6.
The next CPI release is June 11.
The next Fed meeting is June 18.
In this week’s Treasury Rates Update, veteran economist Bill Knudson analyzes U.S. Treasury rate movements with characteristic clarity and precision. Known for his deep market insight and accessibility, Knudson highlights the broader economic implications of rising rates amid shifting macro signals.
Key Insights:
Broad-Based Increase: Treasury yields increased across all maturities during the past week. The 10-year Treasury rose 9 basis points (bp), marking a 17bp gain over the last two weeks.
Yield Curve Dynamics:
The curve remains positively sloped for maturities of two years and beyond.
However, Knudson warns that mid-term yields are flattening, suggesting evolving investor expectations about future growth and inflation.
Rates Snapshot as of May 22, 2025:
2-Year: 4.00%
5-Year: 4.11%
10-Year: 4.54%
30-Year: 5.05%
Spread Outlook: The 10–2 Year Treasury spread steepened slightly from 0.49% to 0.54%, hinting at more confidence in long-term economic stability.
Inflation Update: April’s CPI showed a slight improvement, easing from 2.4% to 2.3%.
Knudson positions these movements within a broader decision-making framework, helping readers interpret rate signals as early indicators of monetary policy shifts and economic sentiment. His update underscores the importance of closely watching yield curve evolution amid mixed inflation and employment data.
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