Treasury Rates Update: June 25th, 2026
- Bill Knudson
- 1 hour ago
- 1 min read
In my decades of analyzing the fixed-income markets, a broad-based retreat in yields after a period of intense policy anxiety often signals a market searching for an economic breather. Following last week’s inflationary tremors, the Treasury market spent this past week reversing course, with yields sliding across nearly the entire term structure as intermediate maturities led a notable steepening of the curve.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury rate dropped 6 basis points (bp) this week to finish at 4.40%, extending its cumulative two-week decline to 15bp. Rather than flattening further under pressure, the curve experienced some relief as short-to-intermediate rates fell faster than ultra-long yields.
Upcoming Key Economic Data Release:
Next jobs release is July 2
Next CPI release is July 14
The next Fed meeting is on July 29
Key Developments
Intermediate Relief: The 2-year yield fell by a sharp 10bp to 4.09%, while the 5-year yield slid 8bp to 4.15%.
Curve Steepening: Due to the steeper drop in short-end yields relative to the long end, the 10-to-2 year spread widened to 0.31%, up from 0.27% last week.
Long-End Softening: The ultra-long 30-year rate edged down a modest 4bp, landing at 4.86%.
Front-End Fractional Tick: Bucking the downward trend, the 1-month yield crept up by 1bp to 3.70%.
With this temporary reprieve in the books, fixed-income markets are bracing for the next major macro catalysts: the July 2nd Jobs report and the July 14th CPI print. Both will prove critical ahead of the July 29th Federal Reserve meeting.
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