Treasury Rates Update: June 19th, 2025

Upcoming Key Economic Data Release:  

• The next new jobs report is July 3.

  
  

• The next CPI release is July 15.

  
  

• The next Fed meeting is  July 30.  

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In this week’s Treasury market commentary, economist Bill Knudson offers a steady-handed interpretation of muted rate movements against a backdrop of modest economic signals. With years of market insight, Knudson highlights how even minor shifts can reflect deeper investor sentiment.

Treasury Rates Update: June 19th, 2025

Key Developments:

• Rates Edged Up: The 10-Year Treasury yield rose 2 basis points (bp) over the past week, now at 4.38%. The two-week net change is a minimal +1bp, reinforcing a narrative of cautious stability.

• Yield Curve Overview (as of June 18):

  • 2-Year: 3.94%

  • 5-Year: 3.98%

  • 10-Year: 4.38%

  • 30-Year: 4.88%

• Curve Dynamics:

  • The 10–2 Year spread narrowed to 0.44%, down from 0.46% the prior week.

  • The curve remains positively sloped for terms beyond two years, but medium-term flattening suggests growing economic ambivalence.

• Economic Signals:

  • CPI ticked up slightly to 2.4%.

  • New job creation came in surprisingly low at just 12,000.

  • The Federal Reserve held rates steady at its latest meeting.

Knudson advises that while headline changes are minor, the convergence of softer labor data and sticky inflation warrants close monitoring. As always, he recommends watching the yield curve for early signs of macro shifts—especially in times of surface-level calm.