Treasury Rates Update: June 12th, 2025
- Bill Knudson
- Jun 15
- 1 min read
Upcoming Key Economic Data Release:
The next new jobs report is July 3.
The next CPI release is July 15.
The next Fed meeting is June 18.
Bill Knudson, a veteran economist and market analyst, delivers a nuanced look at the recent Treasury market trends. In this week’s update, he highlights the quiet but telling shifts in rates—emphasizing what they suggest about future expectations and investor sentiment.
Key Takeaways:
Modest Rate Movements: Treasury yields declined modestly across most maturities. The 10-Year Treasury rate fell 4 basis points (bp) to 4.36%, bringing the two-week net decrease to 7bp.
Term Structure Overview:
2-Year: 3.90%
5-Year: 3.97%
10-Year: 4.36%
30-Year: 4.84%
Yield Curve Notes:
The curve remains positively sloped beyond two years, though mid-term flattening is becoming more pronounced.
The 10–2 Year spread narrowed to 0.46%, down from 0.48% last week.
Interpretation: These gentle declines signal steady investor confidence in long-term rates, while still acknowledging lingering uncertainty in the medium term. Upcoming macro data—particularly the Fed meeting (6/18), Jobs report (7/3), and CPI release (7/15)—may be the next inflection points.
Knudson concludes that in times of mild fluctuation, the shape of the yield curve provides more insight than the rates themselves. For decision-makers, this is a time to remain attentive, not complacent.
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