Treasury Rates Update: July 24th, 2025
- Bill Knudson
- Jul 26
- 1 min read
This week’s Treasury update brings a modest reprieve in long-term rates. Economist Bill Knudson interprets this movement as a market response to recent inflationary signals and positioning ahead of upcoming Federal Reserve and employment announcements.
Upcoming Key Economic Data Release:
The next new jobs report is August 1.
The next CPI release is August 12.
The next Fed meeting is July 30.
Key Developments:
10-Year Treasury Dips: After climbing sharply in prior weeks, the 10-Year Treasury yield decreased by 4 basis points (bp), ending at 4.43%. Despite the pullback, it remains 8bp higher over the past two weeks.
Yield Curve Snapshot (as of July 24):
2-Year: 3.91%
10-Year: 4.43%
30-Year: 4.96%
The 10–2 Year spread narrowed slightly to 0.52%, down from 0.56%.
Macro Context:
CPI rose from 2.4% to 2.7%
The next Fed meeting is July 30, with a jobs report due August 1
Rate changes for 2+ year terms reflect mild softening amid recent volatility
Knudson notes that while short-term rates held steady, longer-term yields declined as markets recalibrate inflation risk and growth outlooks. The modest steepening earlier this month now gives way to a flatter medium-term slope—signaling uncertainty. Investors appear to be hedging ahead of pivotal policy and labor market data, making this a critical inflection point for Treasury watchers.
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