Treasury Rates Update: July 10th, 2025
- Bill Knudson
- Jul 13
- 1 min read
In this week’s update, economist Bill Knudson reflects on a rare moment of stability in the U.S. Treasury market. While rates held steady, subtle shifts in the yield curve and term structure continue to tell a deeper story about investor expectations heading into key economic reports.
Upcoming Key Economic Data Release:
The next new jobs report is August 1.
The next CPI release is July 15.
The next Fed meeting is July 30.
Key Highlights:
Flat Week for the 10-Year Treasury: The benchmark 10-Year rate remained unchanged at 4.35%. Despite no weekly movement, the two-week net increase is 6 basis points (bp), showing a mild upward drift in medium-term yields.
Yield Snapshot (as of July 10):
2-Year: 3.86%
5-Year: 3.93%
10-Year: 4.35%
30-Year: 4.86%
Curve Behavior:
The 10–2 Year spread increased slightly to 0.49%, a mild steepening from last week’s 0.47%.
Short-term rates continue to show flattening tendencies, while longer maturities hold firm.
Macroeconomic Signals:
Job growth was moderate at 147,000 new positions.
Markets await the July 15 CPI report and the Fed's next meeting on July 30.
Knudson notes that a static headline rate can obscure dynamic shifts in investor positioning. Yield curve steepening—even slight—suggests tempered optimism about longer-term growth and inflation control. Stability, he reminds us, is often where inflection points begin.
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