Treasury Rates Update: January 8, 2026
- Bill Knudson
- 1 day ago
- 1 min read
Entering the first full week of 2026, the Treasury market is exhibiting a steady, albeit cautious, temperament as it digests the transition into the new year. We are observing a yield curve that continues to pivot into a more positive position, characterized by softening at the very short end and a marginal drift higher in longer-dated maturities.
The 10-year Treasury rate concluded the week up a nominal 1 basis point (bp), mirroring its cumulative 1bp increase over the past 14 days. This stability is underscored by daily movements that remained largely within a tight 4bp range throughout the period.
Upcoming Key Economic Data Release:
Next net new job release is January 9
Next inflation release January 13
Next Fed meeting is January 28
Key Developments
The 1-month rate experienced a notable decrease of 4bp, signaling a potential easing of immediate liquidity pressures.
Intermediate and long-term rates showed modest upward pressure, with the 2-year rising 2bp, while the 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year maturities each ticked up by 1bp.
The 1-month rate currently sits 22bp above the 1-year rate, maintaining a specific inversion at the front end even as the broader curve normalizes.
Due to the 2-year rate rising faster than the 10-year, the 10-to-2-year spread decreased slightly to 0.70% from 0.71% last week. All eyes now turn to the critical January 9th jobs report and the January 13th CPI release, which will set the tone for the Federal Reserve’s upcoming January 28th meeting.
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