Treasury Rates Update: January 29th, 2026
- Bill Knudson
- 1 day ago
- 1 min read
The U.S. Treasury market remained focused on the Federal Reserve this week as the central bank held rates steady during its January 28th meeting. As an economist who has navigated many cycles, I find the resulting yield curve behavior particularly telling of a market anticipating a shift toward normalization despite ongoing short-term inversions.
For the week, the 10-year Treasury rate showed zero change, maintaining its position after a 9bp climb over the preceding 14 days. While the benchmark stayed flat, the broader curve continued to pivot into a steeper configuration.
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Next net new job release is February 6
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Next inflation release February 11
Next Fed meeting is March 18
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Key Developments
Short term rates led the decline, with the 1 month rate falling 7bp and the 2 year rate dropping 8bp.
The 10 to 2 year spread widened to 0.71%, up from 0.65% last week, indicating a steeper and more traditionally sloped curve for longer maturities.
The front end remains inverted, with the 1 month rate sitting 22bp above the 1 year rate.
Longer dated maturities were mixed but mostly softer, with the 5 year down 5bp and the 30 year ticking up just 1bp.
With the Fed holding steady, the market now looks to upcoming data for direction. We are closely watching the jobs report on February 6th and CPI data on February 11th before the next Fed meeting on March 18th.