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Treasury Rates Update: January 25th, 2024

Updated: Feb 23

Summary: On 12.13.23 the Fed keep rates unchanged however they clearly indicated that up to 3 rate cuts were a distinct possibility in 2024. After that announcement, two senior Fed members indicated that rate reductions could be made later in the year pending econ data.

 

Upcoming Key Economic Data Release:

NOTE while all eyes are on the WEDNESDAY Fed meeting, the monthly NEW Jobs is released on FRIDAY   

  • 1.5.24 New jobs data for December  released 216,000  Not too hot, not too cold.

  • 1.11.24 CPI data for December  released monthly 0.3% which replaced Dec 2022 month's 0.1%.  Larger number replaced smaller one, this caused the annual CPI to increase from 3.1% to 3.3%

  • 1.31.24 Fed Meeting---THIS WEDNESDAY

  • 2.2.24 next New Jobs---THIS FRIDAY

  • 2.13.24 next CPI

  • No Fed meeting in February (March 20 is next after the 1.31.24 meeting, NO meeting in April)  Long time period of no meeting, this occurs twice a year.

  • 1.5.24 New jobs data for December released 216,000 Not too hot, not too cold.

  • 1.11.24 CPI data for December was released monthly at 0.3% which replaced Dec 2022 month's 0.1%. Larger numbers replaced smaller ones, this caused the annual CPI to increase from 3.1% to 3.3%

  • 1.31.24 Fed Meeting

 

For the past 2 weeks, 10 Year Treasury rates were up 10bp. Past week unchanged.

 

Red line is most current rates while green line is one week ago. Longer term rates decreased less relative to shorter term rates, as such the inverted yield curve is more steep. For terms 5+ years, the Yield Curve is positive.


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