Treasury Rates Update: January 22nd, 2026
- Bill Knudson
- 5 days ago
- 1 min read
As we approach the critical Federal Reserve meeting on January 28th, the Treasury market has signaled a decisive shift. This past week, we observed a broad-based move higher in yields, suggesting that the market is recalibrating for a potentially more hawkish path than previously anticipated.
The 10-year Treasury rate surged by 9 basis points (bp) over the last seven days. This brings the cumulative two-week increase to 11bp, effectively reversing the softening we saw in mid-January.
Upcoming Key Economic Data Release:
Next net new job release is February 6
Next inflation release February 11
Next Fed meeting is January 28
Key Developments
Long-term yields climbed significantly, with the 5-year rate up 8bp and the 10-year up 9bp.
The short end of the curve was more varied; while the 1-month rate rose 4bp, the 1-year rate actually edged down by 1bp.
This divergence resulted in the 1-month rate sitting 26bp above the 1-year, expanding that specific front-end inversion.
Overall, the yield curve became steeper, with the 10-to-2 year spread widening to 0.65% from 0.61% the previous week.
With longer-term rates pushing higher and the curve steepening, all eyes remain on the Fed. We expect continued volatility as investors await the next Jobs report on February 6th and CPI data on February 11th.
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