Treasury Rates Update: January 15th, 2026
- Bill Knudson
- Jan 17
- 1 min read
The U.S. Treasury market showed signs of a tactical shift this week as the yield curve flattened slightly. While the headline 10-year rate appears stable, the internal dynamics of the market suggest investors are recalibrating their expectations for both short-term policy and long-term growth as we approach the next Federal Reserve meeting.
The 10-year Treasury rate edged down by 1 basis point (bp) for the week, matching its cumulative 1bp decline over the past 14 days. Despite this relative calm at the benchmark level, we observed a distinct divergence between short-dated and long-dated maturities..
Upcoming Key Economic Data Release:
Next net new job release is February 6
Next inflation release February 11
Next Fed meeting is January 28
Key Developments
Short-term rates rose across the board, with the 1-month and 1-year rates increasing by 5bp and 6bp, respectively.
The 2-year rate saw the most significant jump at 7bp, while the 5-year rate followed with a 3bp increase.
In contrast, the long end of the curve softened, as the 10-year rate fell 2bp and the 30-year rate dropped by 6bp.
This "bear flattener" movement caused the 10-to-2 year spread to decrease to 0.61% from 0.70% just a week ago. With the 1-month rate still sitting 21bp above the 1-year rate, the market remains in a state of transition. Looking ahead, the focus shifts to the January 28th Fed meeting, with subsequent jobs and CPI data in February poised to provide the next major catalyst for movement.
Comments