Treasury Rates Update: February 5th, 2026

Bill Knudson
3 days ago
1 min read

As we enter the first week of March, the Treasury market has signaled a decisive reversal of the downward trend observed in late February. From my perspective as an economist, this week’s broad-based surge in yields suggests that the market is aggressively repricing for a "higher-for-longer" scenario ahead of the critical mid-March policy meetings.

The 10-year Treasury rate climbed 11 basis points (bp) this week, more than offsetting the previous week's decline and bringing the cumulative two-week increase to 5bp. This upward pressure was felt across the entire term structure, with particularly sharp moves in intermediate maturities.

Upcoming Key Economic Data Release:

Next net new job release is March 6

Next CPI release is March 11

Next Fed meeting is March 18

Treasury Rates Update: March 5th, 2026

Key Developments

Key shifts in the yield curve include:

Intermediate and Long-End Surge: The 2-year and 5-year rates both jumped by 15bp, while the 10-year rose 11bp and the 30-year increased by 7bp.
Short-Term Firming: The 1-year rate rose 7bp, while the 1-month rate edged up a marginal 1bp.
Flattening Acceleration: Because the 2-year rate rose more sharply than the 10-year, the 10-to-2 year spread decreased to 0.56% from 0.60% last week.
Front-End Inversion Narrowing: The spread between the 1-month and 1-year rates narrowed to 16bp, down from 22bp a week ago.

All eyes now turn to tomorrow’s March 6th Jobs report and the March 11th CPI data. These metrics will provide the final clarity the Federal Reserve needs before its March 18th meeting.