Treasury Rates Update: February 26th, 2026
- Bill Knudson
- Feb 28
- 1 min read
As we close out February, the Treasury market continues to exhibit the classic signs of a "bull flattener," with yields at the long end of the curve leading the downward charge. Drawing from my years of experience analyzing these cycles, I find the current environment particularly telling as investors recalibrate their growth and inflation expectations ahead of a busy March.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury rate decreased by 6 basis points (bp) this week, contributing to a substantial 16bp cumulative decline over the past 14 days. While long-dated maturities softened, the very front end of the curve showed minor upward pressure.
Upcoming Key Economic Data Release:
Next net new job release is March 6
Next CPI release is March 11
Next Fed meeting is March 18
Key Developments
Long-End Contraction: The 10-year and 30-year rates fell by 6bp and 3bp respectively, while the 5-year rate saw a sharper decline of 8bp.
Short-End Firming: Both the 1-month and 1-year rates edged up by 2bp for the week.
Yield Curve Flattening: The 10-to-2 year spread decreased to 0.60% from 0.61% last week, signaling continued curve compression.
Front-End Inversion: The 1-month rate remains 22bp higher than the 1-year rate, indicating persistent short-term liquidity premiums.
Looking ahead, we are entering a critical window for data. We will be closely monitoring the March 6th Jobs report and the March 11th CPI release, both of which will be instrumental in informing the Federal Open Market Committee's decision at the March 18th meeting.
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