Treasury Rates Update: February 12th, 2026
- Bill Knudson
- 8 hours ago
- 1 min read
The Treasury market experienced a notable shift this week as yields across the long end of the curve retreated significantly.. As an economist with years of experience monitoring these cycles, I view this movement as a direct reaction to the "moderate" jobs report released on February 6th, which showed 130,000 new jobs—a figure that seems to have cooled immediate growth expectations..
The 10-year Treasury rate led the decline, falling by 12 basis points (bp) over the past week and bringing the cumulative two-week drop to 15bp.. While long-term rates softened, the short end remained stubbornly anchored.
Upcoming Key Economic Data Release:Â Â
Next net new job release is March 6
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Next inflation release February 13
Next Fed meeting is March 18
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Key Developments
Long-End Softening:Â The 10-year and 30-year rates dropped by 12bp and 13bp, respectively, while the 5-year rate decreased by 7bp.
Short-End Stability:Â The 1-month and 1-year rates were unchanged, while the 2-year rate edged up by a marginal 1bp.
Curve Flattening:Â This divergence caused the 10-to-2 year spread to decrease to 0.62% from 0.74% last week, signaling a distinct flattening of the yield curve.
Persistent Inversion:Â The 1-month rate continues to sit 27bp above the 1-year rate, maintaining the front-end inversion we have observed throughout early 2026.
With the latest CPI data now in hand and the jobs market showing signs of moderation, our attention shifts entirely to the Federal Reserve’s next move on March 18th.