Treasury Rates Update: December 25th, 2025
- Bill Knudson
- Dec 26, 2025
- 1 min read
The U.S. Treasury market showed resilience and a slight upward bias during the holiday week ending December 24th. Despite the typical seasonal lull, the market continued its gradual adjustment following the recent Federal Reserve rate decrease, with the yield curve showing further signs of normalization.
The 10 Year Treasury rate finished the week up 3bp. This modest gain contributes to a cumulative two-week increase of 2bp. Daily volatility was contained, with the largest movement being a 4bp rise on December 19th, followed by a quiet start to the Christmas week.
Upcoming Key Economic Data Release:
Next net new job release is January 9
Next inflation release January 13
Next Fed meeting is January 28
Key Developments
Our analysis of the yield curve reveals a consistent, though marginal, move higher across almost all maturities:
Short-term rates for the 1-month and 1-year both ticked up by 1bp.
The intermediate belly of the curve saw the most activity, with the 5-year rate rising 4bp.
The 10-year rate gained 3bp, while the 30-year was the sole maturity to decline, falling by 1bp.
This dynamic resulted in a steeper yield curve, as the 10 to 2 year spread widened to 0.68% from 0.66% the previous week. While the 1 month rate remains 22bp above the 1 year rate, the overall curve for terms of two years and longer maintains a healthy positive slope. Investors now look toward the new year, with the next jobs report due January 9th and the next Fed meeting scheduled for January 28th.
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