Treasury Rates Update: August 7th, 2025
- Bill Knudson
- Aug 10
- 1 min read
This week’s Treasury market saw a broad-based decline in yields, with the largest moves concentrated in medium and long maturities. Economist Bill Knudson points to a shifting yield curve structure that reflects heightened sensitivity to growth and inflation data, especially as markets approach key CPI and employment reports.
Upcoming Key Economic Data Release:
Next new job release is 9.5.25
Next inflation release 8.12.25
Next Fed meeting is 9.17.25
Key Developments:
10-Year Yield Drops Sharply: The 10-Year Treasury rate fell 14 basis points (bp) to 4.23%, marking a 20bp decline over the past two weeks.
Yield Curve Snapshot (as of August 7):
1-Month: 4.49% (-20bp)
2-Year: 3.72% (-22bp)
5-Year: 3.79% (-17bp)
10-Year: 4.23% (-14bp)
30-Year: 4.81% (-8bp)
10–2 Year Spread: 0.51%, up from 0.43% last week
Structural Shift:
The positive slope in long maturities remains, but medium-term maturities are showing signs of flattening and inversion risk.
Spread steepening this week was driven by a larger drop in short- and medium-term yields.
Macro Signals:
CPI release on August 12 will be pivotal for rate expectations.
Job growth slowed sharply to 73,000 new positions.
Knudson interprets the steepening as short-term relief in the yield curve, but cautions that the medium-term flattening hints at unresolved uncertainty. This positioning may signal that markets are hedging for slower growth despite near-term easing in rate pressures.
댓글