Treasury Rates: As of September 1st, 2022
Daily changes in the US 10 Year Treasury rates are the blue bars while the red line is the 14-day cumulative change in rates: 38bp cumulative INCREASE. For the blue bars, it is unusual to have changes greater than 0.10 in a single day, and 0.20 is VERY unusual.
Rates for ALL terms were up this week with longer-term rates up a bit higher than short-term. The Yield Curve for short terms remains steep while the longer term (5+ years) remains INVERTED. New jobs created in August came in at a robust 315,000 vs July’s red hot 528,000 It will take at least 8 months for the Energy Prices to “fall” out of the CPI 12-month rolling calc.
In the meantime, we can have a slowing economy with higher interest rates while the Fed fights inflation. While CPI was down on 8.10.22 CORE components are likely to be higher even though energy prices are declining. Next CPI release Sept 13, next Fed Sept 21. Get ready for higher rates.