Mortgage Rates Update: October 30th, 2025
- Bill Knudson
- 4 days ago
- 1 min read
The fixed mortgage market experienced a notable technical movement for the week ending October 30th, 2025, continuing its recent trend of borrower-friendly declines. The 30-year fixed rate decreased by a modest 2 basis points (bp) to 6.17%. This downward movement is particularly compelling given that the 10-Year Treasury rate actually increased by 10bp, strengthening our observation that the mortgage market is reacting to internal dynamics rather than solely benchmark shifts.
Upcoming releases:
Next new jobs Oct 3 (Fed Govt shutdown, no data released)
Next CPI release is Nov 13 (Fed Govt shutdown, delayed but released on 10.24.25. Rose from 2.9% to 3.0%)
Next Fed meeting is Dec 10 (Oct 29 Fed reduced rates 25bp again, 2nd time in 2 meetings)
Key Developments
This week’s divergence in rates led to a 12bp decrease in the spread, a key metric signaling risk premium normalization.
Key market metrics as of 10/30/2025 are:
The 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate is 6.17%.
The 10-Year T-Note Rate stands at 4.11%.
The Current Spread is 206bp.
The Historical Spread remains 168bp.
Crucially, the current spread is now only 38bp above the historical average, marking a further reduction in the safety cushion priced in by the lending sector. This softening of the rate environment provided marginal but welcome relief: for a $100,000 loan, the monthly payment decreased by $1 to $611. Continued narrowing of the spread suggests persistent market efforts to attract housing capital.
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