Mortgage Rates Update: November 20th, 2025
- Bill Knudson
- 10 minutes ago
- 1 min read
The recent momentum favoring mortgage rate declines reversed course for the week ending November 20th, 2025, signaling persistent friction in the lending market. The 30-year fixed rate ticked up by 2 basis points (bp), settling at 6.26%. Critically, this upward movement occurred despite a 1bp decline in the 10-Year Treasury rate, reinforcing the notion that idiosyncratic risk premiums continue to dominate mortgage-backed securities pricing, rather than purely benchmark yield shifts.
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Next new jobs Oct 3Â Â Â (Fed Govt shutdown, no data released)
Next CPI release is Nov 13  (Fed Govt shutdown, delayed till 10.24.25. Rose from 2.9% to 3.0%. No release 11.13)
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Key Developments
This divergence expanded the gap between the two benchmarks, with the spread increasing by 3bp.
Key market metrics as of 11/20/2025 are:
The 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate is 6.26%.
The 10-Year T-Note Rate stands at 4.10%.
The Current Spread is 216bp.
The spread is 48bp above the historical average of 168bp.
The current spread buffer of 48bp  above the historical norm highlights that lenders are maintaining a conservative posture due to ongoing economic uncertainties and caution toward the housing market. For consumers, the minimal rate increase translated to a $1 increase in the monthly payment for a $100,000 loan, now at $616/mo. As experienced economists, we continue to watch for definitive signs that the spread is compressing back towards its historical mean, a necessary precondition for sustained affordability improvements.