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Mortgage Rates Update: May 9th, 2024

Commentary:


Next jobs release June 7  May 3 new jobs came in at 175,000 vs 303,000 for prior month.  This slower job growth provides the Fed with support for rate reductions sometime in 2024.

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The next CPI release is May 15  April 10 Annual CPI increased from 3.2% to 3.5%.  Energy prices up and the March 2023 data point was very low 0.1% fell out of the annual CPI calc as the new data point of 0.4% for the month of March 2024 came in. 

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Next Fed meeting is June 12.


 

For the week ending 5.9.24 Mortgage rates DECREASED 13bp to 7.09%.


For a $100,000 loan, the monthly payment DECREASED $9.00 and to $671/mo or $0.29/day.

 

Mortgage rates INCREASED 5bp while the 10-year Treasury rates DECREASED 12bp for the week ended 5/2/24. The net difference resulted in a 17bp increase in the spread to 264bp. With the historical spread being 168 there now exists a “safety cushion” of 96 bp above the historical spread.

 

The historic spread between the 10-year Treasury and mortgage rates is 168pb (see green line, right axis) and currently is 96bp above the historical norm.



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