Commentary:
As mentioned last week.... For the coming week, given that Treasuries increased 9bp it is problematic if mortgages will remain below 7.00%. Possible--but it will be close. Mortgage rates came in at 7.03%
With Treasuries up 8bp this week, Mortgages will likely increase to ~7.10%
Next jobs release June 7
Next CPI release is June 12
Next Fed meeting is June 12
For the week ending 5.30.24 Mortgage rates INCREASED 9bp to 7.03%.
For a $100,000 loan, the monthly payment INCREASED $6.00 and to $667/mo or $0.20/day.
Mortgage rates INCREASED 9bp while the 10-year Treasury rates INCREASED 8bp for the week ended 5/30/24. The net difference resulted in a 1bp increase in the spread to 248bp. With the historical spread being 168 there now exists a “safety cushion” of 80bp above the historical spread.
The historic spread between the 10-year Treasury and mortgage rates is 168pb (see green line, right axis) and currently is 80bp above the historical norm.
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