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Mortgage Rates Update: March 5th, 2026

The mortgage market for the week ending March 5, 2026, demonstrated a significant correction in market efficiency. As an economist who prioritizes the relationship between primary and secondary market yields, I find this week's data particularly telling. While the 10 Year Treasury rate rose by 11 basis points to 4.13 percent, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate remained perfectly flat at 6.00 percent.


This divergence resulted in a healthy 11 basis point compression of the mortgage Treasury spread. This tightening indicates that lenders are absorbing the recent rise in benchmark yields rather than passing those costs onto borrowers, effectively reducing the risk premium.



Upcoming releases:

 

  • Next net new job release is March 6


  • Next inflation release March 11


  • Next Fed meeting is March  18


Key Developments

Key market metrics as of 3/5/2026 are:

  • The 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rate is 6.00 percent.

  • The 10 Year T-Note Rate is 4.13 percent.

  • The Current Spread is 187 basis points.

  • The Safety Cushion above the historical average is 19 basis points.


For a 100,000 dollar loan, the monthly payment held steady at 600 dollars. With the spread now sitting just 19 basis points above the long term historical average of 168, we are seeing a market that is approaching its most efficient pricing structure in several months.

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