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Mortgage Rates Update: June 13th, 2024

Commentary:


This past week was volatile.... it was an up with the job numbers followed by a down week with CPI.  Jobs, CPI, and Fed all occur in a 4-day span--- a rare occurrence.

 

  • The next jobs release is July 5.   June 7 came in at 272,000 and unemployment rate rose to 4.00%. The prior month was 175,000 and 3.9%

  • The next CPI release is July 11.  June 12 came in a 0.0% and annual CPI decreased 3.4% to 3.3% May's 0.0% is important, we could have a 2.8% CPI on Sept 11 when the August data is released.

  • The Next Fed meeting is July 31.  June 12 no change, signaled that there may have one change later in 2024.  It is worth noting: there are only 2 Fed meetings left before the Nov 5 election: July 31 and Sept 18.


 

For the week ending 6.13.24 Mortgage rates DECREASED 4bp to 6.95%.


For a $100,000 loan the monthly payment DECREASED $3.00 and to $665/mo or $0.09/day.

 

Mortgage rates DECREASED 4bp while the 10-year Treasury rates also DECREASED 4bp for the week ended 6/6/24. Spread remained at 271bp. With the historical spread being 168 there now exists a “safety cushion” of 103bp above the historical spread.

 

The historic spread between the 10-year Treasury and mortgage rates is 168pb (see green line, right axis) and currently is 103bp above the historical norm.






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