Mortgage Rates Update: January 8th, 2026
- Bill Knudson
- 1 day ago
- 1 min read
As we open the first full week of 2026, the mortgage market has exhibited a remarkable degree of stability, characterized by a parallel shift in both primary and secondary market yields. For the week ending January 8, 2026, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate increased by a marginal 1 basis point to settle at 6.16 percent. This incremental move was mirrored precisely by the 10 Year Treasury rate, which also rose by 1 basis point to 4.19 percent.
In my experience, such synchronized movement indicates a market in a state of equilibrium, where the risk premium for mortgage-backed securities is holding steady. Consequently, the mortgage Treasury spread remained unchanged at 197 basis points.
Upcoming releases:
Next new jobs Jan 9
Next CPI release is Jan 13
Next Fed meeting is Jan 28
Key Developments
Key market metrics as of 1/8/2026 are:
The 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rate is 6.16 percent.
The 10 Year T Note Rate stands at 4.19 percent.
The Current Spread is 197 basis points.
The Safety Cushion above the historical average is 29 basis points.
This persistent 29 basis point cushion above the long-term historical norm of 168 basis points suggests that while volatility has quieted, lenders are still maintaining a conservative risk buffer. For a 100,000 dollar loan, the monthly payment saw a nominal increase of 1 dollar, bringing the total to $610. We continue to monitor these spreads for any signs of compression that would signal a return to more aggressive lending postures.
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