Summary
When the Fed last met on Dec 13, they indicated that there maybe 3 rate cuts in 2024. Mortgage rates declined from 6.95% to 6.61% in two weeks. In late December, two members of the Fed's FOMC made statements to the effect that any rate changes will be based on economic data available in the future. In other words, yes there maybe/will be rate changes in the future but the future date is to be determined. Mortgage rates since then have been effectively flat.
For the week ending 1.25.24 Mortgage rates INCREASED 9bp to 6.69%. For a $100,000 loan the monthly payment INCREASED $6.00 and to $645/mo or $0.20/day.
Mortgage rates INCREASED 9bp while the 10 Year Treasury rates INCREASED 0bp for the week ended 1/2524. The net difference resulted in a 9bp increase in the spread to 255bp. With the historical spread being 168 there now exists a “safety cushion” of 87bp above the historical spread.
The historic spread between the 10 Year Treasury and mortgage rates is 168pb (see green line, right axis) and currently is 87bp above historical norm.
